doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com anyone seeing gun prices affected by economy yet?

yeah. they're going up.

after the crowd my nearest cabelas has had at the gun counter ever since just before dove season (and was still almost as bad yesterday) and the crowds we had to deal with for a week at walt disney world, i don't want to hear anybody tell me the economy is bad. it may be in spots, and i'm sure some people are affected, but i can't tell it by looking.

cabelas used racks (not the "library", but the regular guns) are virtually empty. heard a couple of the guys in the library complaining that people aren't getting rid of guns and they can't replenish their used stock. real pity since around FW, for as long as they've been there, they've had the best stock of used guns of any shops i frequent. i've bought more from them than every other place combined in the last 3 yrs.

roger

Only 10% of the guns shot around this board will hold their value - the rest like everything else, will lose a third in the marketplace.
Non-originals and redos with fancy scratchins' will take the BIG hit. Do I really want to buy some guy's dream gun with his mother-in-law engraved on it?
If you haven't got rid of your clunkers by now, your stuck wiff 'em!

There is a bright spot to all this!
When the Beamer crowd becomes the new down and out, you'll pick up a bargain when the rent comes due.

From a local Auction site;

"Fairfield, Maine - On Monday October 6th & Tuesday October 7th the U.S. Stock Market plunged nearly 10%, the world economy flirted with catastrophe but in Fairfield, Maine an assemblage of rare antique guns brought extraordinary results, despite the economy. A Colt Walker pistol, made for use in the Mexican War, and considered to be one of the finest examples in existence sold for a spectacular $920,000. This was the most expensive, single firearm ever sold at auction in the world. Julia’s held the past two World Records for Walker Revolvers with previous sales of $480,000 and $432,000. This Walker carried a pre-sale estimate of $500,000 to $1,000,000; another rare Colt cased fluted Army sold for $454,000. Total low estimate of all items sold was $9.7 million and sold for approximately $12 million. In all 2 objects sold for over $400,000, 10 objects realized above $100,000, 31 sold above $50,000, 124 sold for over $20,000, and 294 sold over $10,000. The average sale value of approximately $11,500 is the highest average ever achieved by an auction house for firearms. The sale was, unquestionably, a tremendous testament to the demand, confidence and resilience of antique, tangible assets."
http://www.jamesdjulia.com/firearms.asp

Quality(unmessed with) guns,antiques,jewelry will always sell and hold or gain value.The middle and low end market will not.

"Not everyone sells into a declining Dow Jones Average, but those who do will have a hard time getting 3% interest in what looks like 5% (or more)inflation. Now may be the time to buy the Dow at 8,800 down from about 14,000 little over a year ago... "


IMO now is NOT the time to jump back into to the market (if I recall there was some joker on here last summer saying it was a great time to buy,-hope he found a window high enough!).Gold,cash and some select commodities (Cocoa for instance) and selling into any ralley in the DOW will work a lot better then the old dead buy and hold.

Money is there for the "finest examples in existence."
Its the rest of them.
For the man with a closet full of shooters, it might be a different story. The best bet for him, is to have an extra large grave dug for him and his shooters.

Lowell, you're a really nice guy. You brighten everyone's day.
nial

nialmac
Ditto on the Lowell comment. I think I'll just take my guns out back, dig a big hole, dump them in it, then lay down on them and shoot myself.

Believe it or not, things aren't that bad.

What happens quite often when the market and other investment go soft is people start putting their money into hardware type investments. Collectible cars,guns,art,coins, etc.

Yea the shooter grades will probably take a short term hit but they were probably overpriced in the first place. When you start seeing fairly beat Sterlingworths being advertised for around $2000.00 you know something is out of whack.

I note the movement of the pound from $2 to $1.4x is making a big change in the stuff in the UK.
bill

It will be interesting what the new year brings. The markets trend upward and adjust downward in seemingly unpredictable cycles. The idea is to be on the sidelines with cash to buy when the others are panic selling. The Dow was at a record 14,000 plus in the second half of 2007, and sold off to 7,774 at a "magic moment" on Oct 8th, closing at 8,451; then tanked again on Nov 13th (magic-moment low 7,948 closing at 8,835); and took a beating again with magic-moment lows of 7,967--7,465--7,392 on Nov 19-20-21, closing at a low of 7,552 on Nov 20th. It has bounced back to close Friday Jan 2nd at 9,034.

A person with some intestinal fortitude and ready cash and possibly a dash of market savvy could have bought the Dow under 8,000 on the second low between Nov 13 and Nov 21. This is not rocket science to see something that smart people once bought and sold for 14,000 within the past 15 months going begging in the mid- to high-7,000's (be it guns or the Dow index). But you gotta be there, cash in hand, when all hell breaks loose. The Dow closed at 9,034 on Friday; $10,000 invested on November 20 at the 7,552.29 close would be $11,962.50 at Friday's close, a 19.63% gain in 43 days or a 166% annualized return on your investment, before dividends paid.

Better yet, a selected Dow portfolio (excluding GM and the bailed-out financials) would pay a 5.5% dividend yield if bought at the 8,000 level (and about 4.5% at the present 9,000). Are you getting 4.5% on your savings account? gov bonds? or MMCD's? What current return does gold pay? Or fancy shotguns?

Fine double barrel shotguns that are well-bought can be a store of wealth and may pay a capital gain when sold, but the real "profit" is in simply owning and using them. Don't confuse a Parker or Smith with a Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund. And unless you are a farmer (like me) whose life situation is hopelessly intertwined with commodities (corn, wheat, soybean futures), prudent persons would stay away from speculating on commodities they do not actually expect one day to own (like "cocoa," which is not a winter-time kid's drink).

Anyway, assuming you bought the Dow under 8,000, what to do now? John Bogle says, "buy and hold." Jim Cramer says, "Buy and do homework." My Buy & Hold Homework likes: AA, ADM, BA, CAT, DE, GE, INTL, IP, KO, MSFT, and T (and maybe DD), and PARKER BROTHERS is always a strong "Buy," especially when in high original condition. And a final caveat: I have long positions in the previously mentioned "investibles." EDM

Nothing is more picked over than Parkers, they are one man's ceiling and the other man's floor. You've prolly over paid for almost any Parker - so if they say 2009 is going to be the first days of the dark ages to come - well your going to take the hit. Only the cream of the crop Parker will command anything - ones of questionable heritage will be raked over the coals of hell.
Otoh, the AH Fox Sterlingworth Philly gun has been the gun of the 2000s, if bought in the middle 90s you have seen a 3-4Xs increase in price.