It is not likely that you will see any type of 100% oncrease right now. We are coming into the off season for most ammo sales. Hunting seasons are winding down and the next opening day is over six months away. Buyers are not in the market for more shells so a drastic price increase does not make sense. A few will panic buy but most will wait and shop for sales or off brand imports. Why worry about shell for next year when you just finished this year?
The only year round or more like Spring-Summer market sales that ammo makers have right now are clay target shooters. A large percentage of them reload already. New shell sales for registered shooting still exist but most shooters shoot maybe 4-5,000 shells a year in compition. SHooters who do not reload just buy on price point as a rule so import shells will become even a greater share of the market.
20 flats of shells for one shooter is a decent sale but not near what volume Dove shooting is to shell makers. Remington use to say that the first day of Dove season generated more shell sales than Skeet and Trap did all year long.
Buy reloading supplies when ever you see them at a decent price. Look for them in places that you may have forgot about. Do you have a old hunting or shooting buddy who has gotten out of shooting. Chances are he has components left that he will sell for very reasonable prices just ot get rid of them.
I just bought 2,000 16 AA wads for 3.00 a bag from an old hunting buddy. He has quit hunting and had them left in his garage. I saw them and asked if he wanted to sell them. He had a sales slip for them for $12.00 a thousand and just wanted his money out of them. Happy to help out. Bought the rest of his old shot, powder, primers and hulls for a very small amount. Found a home for his MEC 600JR. He has a cleaner garage and I have a few more componets to use. We are both happy but not as happy as his wife to get rid of stuff she had no clue how to dispose of if he died.
Bargins are where you find them. Now if he would just sell me his 16 AE Fox to go with those shells. Ought to be worth what he paid for it 50 years ago. After all he has used it hunting for years. It is an old gun now. Still looks great for its age. Hummmmm. Wonder if he would take $500.00 for it? That has to be twice what he paid for it. Got to go, need to make a call....