BTW, the other side of number of pellet strikes is aiming error; anyone have any research on probability of scorable target vs aiming error?
DDA
Don, I understand, and respect, that you are an engineer and place much greater emphasis on empirical evidence than I might. I have never attempted to analyze this issue in order to come up with data that might help all shooters. The fact is, with the vast majority of us, what works for us individually, and the
certainty we have that it is right for us, is what is important.
Here is my un-scientific evidence, and it is admittedly anecdotal. But, I have 110% faith in it. In my quest to "master" sporting clays I was attempting to use the amount of choke that would give me the highest probability of hitting the target with enough pellet strikes to effect a break. The vast majority of my breaks were just that, breaks. Into several pieces. I plateaued in my climb upwards through the classes, hung up at A class. I had developed a flinch, and I was frustrated.
Due to a series of decisions, at about the same time, I went from a MX-8 with choke tubes to one with fixed .020" chokes. I went from 1 oz. loads to 1 1/8 oz. loads. My scores immediately improved and I started back getting punches. My flinch went 99% away. And, I started smoking the targets. I rapidly garnered punches, punching into M class at the 2010 U. S. Open.
I
KNOW, that I know, that I know, that
I have a greater probability of breaking any given target, regardless of it's speed or closeness to me, with the tighter chokes. I also can absolutely guarantee that ...... The more pellets you put on a clay target the greater chance that it will break.
As I said, this is not statistical evidence I know. But, I have found that many others have encountered the exact same results.
All my best, Stan