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Forums10
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Most Online1,344 Apr 29th, 2024
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,799 Likes: 101
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,799 Likes: 101 |
cadet: enjoy your collection...
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,799 Likes: 101
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,799 Likes: 101 |
ted: your defeatist negative attitude precludes your successful participation in this exercise...in order to win at linear investment task modeling, one needs to want to win...otherwise any success is usually the results of dumb luck...which has certainly been the secret to success for more than one investment winner...
Last edited by ed good; 11/05/18 02:11 AM.
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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Joined: May 2007
Posts: 603
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 603 |
Against my better judgement... Another way of looking at fine, collectible double gun prices is through equilibrium price driven by supply and demand: There's a finite (and falling, as more succumb to wear, abuse etc) number of fine vintage doubles. That's an absolute limit, which may sustain prices; but they're generally held by collectors who are at an age and stage they're looking to sell - good supply, temporarily. Gen X, Y, Millennials seem largely disinterested in the field - low demand. Until those generations get the bug, things look poorly for gun prices - which may be an opportunity if you think they'll climb again, or not, if you think it's on the wane permanently. The shrinking of hunting opportunities and general swing against hunting and shooting socially doesn't look rosy; against that though is a modest, but growing counter-culture of people who value vintage, handmade, craftsman-built stuff. Fine old guns fit that. It certainly explains what I saw at the last auction I attended: lots of grey hair (of a couple of hundred in the room, I was almost youngest - at 40), plenty passed in after failing to make reserve, or sold below estimates. Rocketman perhaps has some data on what prices have been doing over time?
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 969 Likes: 38
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 969 Likes: 38 |
Risk analysis includes legislation that can turn guns from assets to liabilities, demographics (shrinking market) and finally liquidation ie convertability into cash. None of them are favorable at the moment.
Comparing index linked stocks to gun values over the years shows that guns are not investments.
The notion of collecting/investing in guns was alien to buyers during the golden age of the shotgun. It came about in the 1970s and 80s when inflation hedging barbarians (Gough Thomas's description of shotgun "investors") discovered guns. That time coincidentally was when the phenomenon of the "artist engraver" and signed work came about.
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Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,880 Likes: 16
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 13,880 Likes: 16 |
If the market isnt favorable now under Trump, it's almost assuredly going to get worse in two years. Guns are poor choice for investment. Gun dealers are under increasing scrutiny and regulatory requirements. Classic gun dealers are fewer and further between. Its harder ground to hoe every year.
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 9,350
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 9,350 |
Pretty hard to find anyone wanting a double around here.
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Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 7,797 Likes: 565
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 7,797 Likes: 565 |
Guns are not an investment. If you expect a positive return you better find something that is rare or tied to a famous person. Antiques in general, which most double guns are, have had a negative return for several years to as much as the last decade in some cases. Invest in real estate, bonds or the market. Play with guns and buy antiques if your wife likes them.
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Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 152
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 152 |
During the late 60's and 70's a ton of double rifles came in from India. The buyers at that time are starting to liquidate their collections now as they are in their 60's 70's or later. I watch Gunsinternational every day. Used to be an average of 99 to 100 English double rifles at any one time. Now the average is closer to 145! The dealers are advertising more and more and are trying to keep the prices up. Some doubles have been for sale for years. To add to the problem for owners is the increase in buyers fees to 20% starting to be seen in the auction houses. As an example, James Julia Auction House was bought by Morphy. Buyer fee went from 15% to 20%. That is a 33% increase! I'm guessing the rifles are off 20% from the high and now you take a further 5% loss from the auction sales as the buyer is not going to pay it. I hope it levels off.
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,592 Likes: 128
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,592 Likes: 128 |
Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds, Precious Metals, etc. all seem to me to resemble "Investments" For me, guns are like gambling. I don't put any money into guns that I cannot afford to lose.
I find the experiential aspect of firearms to be key when considering value. How do you put a price on the time you've spent and the friendships you've built in and around guns? We all drive cars. The diminished value of these "things" at the end of their useful life is generally accepted without the blink of an eye. What makes guns so holy?
When I've reached the end of my useful life, I expect to look back and smile at the time and money I've spent on guns.
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,696 Likes: 97
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,696 Likes: 97 |
I have been asking this question myself for the last couple of years since it has been showing the English gun market getting weaker. I watch the auctions and for the last couple of years it has been my opinion that English gun prices have been dropping. I don't want to claim to be an expert but I own a few English guns and when I bought them I had hope to their value rising. I would say at this time their values have fallen at least 25%. Now I did not buy them at the time with resale in mind, but I did hope one day if I did I could turn a profit. I don't blame the economy as much as I blame the times and how it is changing. The new generation does not care for the refinement of Best quality as much as just functionality. Also the decrease in game and places to hunt is taking it's toll.
Mike Proctor
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