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John, I wouldn't presume to know or predict the future gun buying preferences of multi-millionaires or even billionaires who can drop $25- 50,000 on a shotgun as easily as you or I spend a thousand. In a world seemingly dominated by semi-autos, guys are spending record sums on collectible Colt revolvers and Winchester lever guns.

Personally, I think semi-custom firms like CSMC have been catering to a very small segment of the gun buying market. And it was only a matter of time before the demand for CNC built "Guns-as-Art", that would spend most or all of their time in a display case or safe, would decline.

Part of the appeal to vintage guns for many of us is the fact that they were built during a time when there was a great deal of hand labor involved. I recall reading that even a machine made gun like an original L.C. Smith field grade shotgun had over a month of hand labor involved in fitting, barreling, stocking, and assembly. Add in the enormous amount of skilled hand labor to produce a Damascus barrel for the same gun, and we are buying a lot of man hours of skilled labor for not a lot of money. My head tells me that a brand new CNC machined Turkish or Japanese (or American) double might be more reliable, but my heart wants the old original vintage gun. That's a reason so many guys willingly go underwater on restorations too. A CSMC Fox or Winchester reproduction isn't just competing with Turkish, Spanish or Italian guns that are much less expensive, but they are competing with collectible original Fox and Winchesters as well.

Automation, robotics, and CNC machining which eliminated expensive hand labor resulted in lower production costs and lower retail prices for many products. But that cost savings didn't really translate into any savings for gun buyers in the niche "Art Gun" or reproduction markets.

I still believe that if there was really a downward trend in interest for doubles, prices across the board would be dropping like a rock. I didn't even see any bargains coming out of closets during the Great Recession in 2008-2009. All we really see is some corrections where certain segments of the double gun market were overheated by people buying into a mania or a fad. I wish I had loaded up on Colt Pythons when a nice one could be had for well under a grand. But I won't be jumping in now. Here's an article about ten really hot collectibles that aren't so hot anymore:

https://www.thestreet.com/slideshow/1356...ue-and-why.html

Keith,
One thing that has seemed to change from the era of perhaps a decade or two ago, is the fact that there are dealers who have guns in inventory for a decade.
I�m guessing these are consignment guns, but, in the past, it seemed that eventually something had to give, and the guns were sold at a discount, or ended up being traded. They left inventory, somehow, and disappeared.
I have watched a few guns, at a few dealers, that have 8-10 years of time at those dealers. Same price as a decade ago.
I don�t believe you can look at the prices of those guns, and say to yourself, �prices are still high on these old guns� . They haven�t sold, and, aren�t going to sell, unless the price comes down.
I don�t begrudge the dealer wanting every penny he can get for a gun, but, I sometimes wonder what the hell these guys actually sell that pays to keep the door open?

Best,
Ted

We might have seen the downward trend for gun prices with the closing of Ivory Beads. Wonder how "Upscaled dealers like Steve Barnett, Kevin's of Thomasville, Fox Hill Gun Vault and Robin Hollow, amongst others, are faring with their sometimes high end pricing??

Anybody here what actually happened to old Herschel Chaddick- At one time, he and Jack Puglisi in Duluth MN had a lot of Parkers for sale. Where are they now-a-days??

Mr. Chaddick has passed away. Jack Puglisi has as well, but, his son still has the store in the old bank building. He is not the presence in the local gun shows that his Father was.

Best,
Ted

Hard to say Kevin�s of Thomasville
And downward trends in gun prices in the same sentence.

I am just going to comment on CNC vs hand labor. Assuming my more modern doubles have ample amounts of machine labor, my 1893 Purdey has the best metal finishing, metal to metal and wood to metal fit. I would have thought the labor savings would have allowed for better final finish work but not so

Ted, I agree that there are dealers who seem to be able to maintain an inventory of dramatically overpriced guns for a very long period of time. I even see some high priced dealers carting the same guns to multiple gun shows, for multiple years, and often wonder if they ever sell anything. I also wonder just how they make enough money to justify their time and table expenses. But many of those overpriced guns are not doubles.

I suppose they have some preset profit margin they desire, and might have simply bought these guns at inflated prices. I used to spend more time looking at Gunbroker before they managed to make the site slower and less user friendly. I was one of the guys who complained about having to waste time sifting through pages of overpriced guns with large reserves that are relisted for years on end. Naturally, we notice this with doubles because that is a major area of interest for many of us. But the same sucker fishing and endless relisting situation exists with many other types of guns as well.

One thing we can be sure of is that virtually every gun that is listed with no reserve will generate multiple bids, and sell for what is generally a realistic current market price... driven by competitive bidding in a large nationwide internet auction. This is how I advise many people to get a good general idea of what their guns are actually worth.... by comparing the same make, model, and condition, and actual completed sale prices. Sometimes there are other factors that may distort the hammer price, such as poor pictures, a poor seller reputation, or exceedingly high shipping charges. But my observations of vintage American double gun prices are based upon real world completed sales... now versus 10-20 years ago. I still don't see where the sky is falling. But even if I lose my ass in a declining double gun market, I can say I enjoyed owning and shooting my guns a lot more than some stock certificate that also went down the toilet in a recession or corporate bankruptcy.

Truth is, I'm a lot more concerned about losing money due to lower stock prices and much higher taxes if Liberal Democrats get back in power, than I am about my doubles losing value. And Liberal Democrats are a much bigger threat to all of our guns than falling values, rust, oil soaking, or using the wrong hinge pin grease. Let's get real here!

I find myself in agreement with Keith�s assessment that the sky is not falling.

I also agree with the question as to why prices have not depressed more on the lower end guns coming over from Europe.

I have long term reservations on the value of lower end gun, but believe mid range and above will hold on well.

Heirs with interests in fine doubles trump any concerns over future market value.
#2 son and I are heading to the club tomorrow. We'll be shooting a pair of Galazan Foxes.
Problem solved.

Many of the better gun dealers are now gone, retired, or had enough. Far less than years ago. How many new better grade gun dealers are entering the market? We have a few places that have just recently opened up. All black guns and machine guns.

PS: Ted, you are correct. Many of the high end gun dealers have mostly consignment guns.

John