doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com OT-What to see in Bejing?

Greg,
Buying American is something I agree with 100%. It costs more up front but in most cases the difference in quality is absolute. A market driven reduction in trade is something that cannot be legislated, or changed by the next government.

I think despite China's rapid emergence during the last 10 years, they will face internal challenges in the next decades that will help level the playing field. They've been ignoring huge parts of their infrastructure during the boom and the piper will have to be paid. Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea have all gone through the process of success, boom, and internal catch-up. Also note that Taiwan and S. Korea were dictatorships during the growth and development decades and only moved to democracy after the economies were established. I expect China will remain a CINO dictatorship (Communist in Name Only ) for a long time.

I'll drink almost any country's beer though.

Last I knew, China's best beer, Tsing Tao, is really German, having its orgin in those long, long ago years when Imperial China granted a German firm a concession to make beer in China.

Remember all those trade "concessions" that Imperial China granted to western nations? Most were/are located in Shanghai, once a grubby little fishing village, above (shang) the sea (hai) -- a fitting place for those obnoxious westerners. Lots of those westerners were chased out when the Nationist Chinese were routed off to Formosa (Tiawan today). I grew up with some of those westerners. Today the westerners are back. One can see lots of familier looking autos in Chinese cities, thanks to China-based auto factories by Volkswagon, Chrysler, etc. Look at the huge parade of neon signs up and down river from the Bund (european part of Shanghai) sometime. Just about all of the major western manufacturers are there -- Coca Cola, Seimans, Goodyear, etc.

Problems in China -- yep, huge ones, as befitting a huge country undergoing huge changes. Pollution of air and water is one of the most visible.

Also, don't forget that the western world inserted itself into China during the decaying years of one of China's longest running dynasties. Actually the last dynasty was Manchurian (North Korean in modern geographic terms), rather than Han, and is one of the two times the Chinese (Han) asked a foreign power for help (the other was Mongolian). In both cases, the foreigners stayed in power for a long time. After each decay period, a new dynasty evolved and lasted for some time, sometimes hundreds of years, before the cycle repeated. Their affair with Communism, following fall of the last dynasty, has its presidents in Chinese history.

Stay tuned for changes in China. But, plan to stay tuned for decades.

Niklas

The economic growth rate in China is unparalleled in all of history.

Whether China has problems or not (of course they will have problems, who doesn't) doesn't matter. What matters is the damage their growth will inflict on the US - it will be sizable.

The US used to be a relatively sovereign nation - now we depend on too many foreign interests. Every day they grow smarter and more capable, every day we grow dumber and less capable.

If the scat ever hits the turbine and the world economy takes a BIG dip there will be a lot of people in "service" industries jobless in this country. Remember when they told our steel workers to retrain for service industry jobs? We don't manufacture much these days. Sure, we export some food and aircraft ..... but more and more the buyers are requiring our manufactures to fabricate a large portion of that aircraft in their country. Think about the giant contract to make and sell Fighter aircraft to India. We have become a country that is living on it's credit cards ...... When the sub-prime mortgage bust really gets rolling the next to go will be CC debt. Yes, I bought a Chinese air conditioner this summer ..... but there was no US made machine to be had within 100 miles..... no matter the cost. I did buy a US made tractor and wish I didn't. It's spent as much time in the shop as it has in my field. BUT ..... great customer service from my small town dealer.

Al

Yes, China is perhaps Planet Earth's most capable society. It has also had some really major up and down periods in its thousands of years long history and there is no reason for that to change. Western world has no equal in history. USA has lasted only as long as some of China's shorter lived dynasties. What will next 200-400 years bring? Want to place your bets with or against history?

Folks used to joke that "Optimists learn Russian, pessimists learn Chinese". I learned Russian at home. I could also have learned Shanghai Chinese, but did not. My childern know neither language or my other home language (Swedish), only American English. How is your Chinese, especially Mandarin? Can you even read street signs and maps in mainland Chinese? How about newspapers? Can you order a meal in a resturant in Beijing?

My cultural and ethnic roots are deep in three countries, plus in USA. The world looks lots different to folks like me than to anglo-only, English-only Americans.

There is only one planet that is known to support life as we know it, and other potential planets are very, very far away. We once had the ability to destroy this planet, just a button push or three away. We once badly messed up nearly all societies on Planet Earth, with WW2. Competition in a truely "global marketplace" seems promising by comparison. "Sovereign Nation" is a concept in rapid evolution, if not obsolence, it can no longer be a synonym for "isolation" and "self sufficiency".

Niklas

As someone whose ability to make money had seriously been compromised by trade with China (Furniture), I have concerns about Chinese trade. We held our own when there was competition from Mexico and there was a lot of gloom and doom in the beginning, but China is a different matter. When people work 12 hour shifts for 363 days a year for $2.00 a day, it is hard to compete. We treated our slaves better, While industry deals with polution at a tremendous cost in this country the Chinese simply let it float off into the atmosphere.

If you believe that polution is linked to Global warming, (I don't think we have enough information yet) you would have to believe that China's polution is a major contributor. I would think that if the Chinese can control their people enough to tell them how many children they can have, they could control their industry enough to keep polution down.

The problem is that we can't compete in manufacturing in this country becasue of the level or regulation we have to deal with. The cost to manufacturing of EPA, OSHA and other federal regulations is stagering. I can't see why we can't impose restrictions on trade that are linked to polution and other similar issues. After all, the concern for polution that is driven by the EPA is a global concern isn't it?

Just my thoughts.
Dick Jones

The birthright of the average American : Cell phones. DVD players. DVD players in Tahoe Z71's. $100 football tickets. Dinner and beer at Bennigan's. Nintendo.

The birthright of the average male Chinese:

The birthright of the average female Chinese: Less than the male Chinese

Great point Greg!



Now, to rephrase it a bit.

What does the above described average American have to gain? More expensive frills, many of them made abroad (-- in China? Or maybe Finland, think Nokia, "poor little Finland", what if they were as big as China).

What does the above described Chinese have to gain? Apparently, everything. Wonderful carrot!! But, newly rich Chinese, they can be right up there with the world's affluent. Guess who the role models are in China?

Niklas

I don't know who the role models are in China. But I would suspect that regardless of whether the average Chinese aspires to be Paris Hilton or a Rockefeller, the Chinese government will see to it that they become what the Chinese government decides they should be.

Don't miss seeing the Chinese Geisha


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w449wy9LbOs