You have to separate out what you want from what you think will happen. What should have happened from what actually happens. And then learn to live with, accept and move on from what has happened. I know all that sounds really elementary, but sometimes it's hard to do in politics.
Case in point. Polling and the predictions markets. It's documented that a 'French whale' moved the betting markets for reasons know unto himself. Those markets aren't that deep that someone with reasons can't manipulate them. And polling, well, President Trump himself has been complaining that he's paying for polls from people telling him what he wants to hear or what they think he should hear, and he just comes away with a feeling that he's spending a lot of money for info of dubious value.
My sense--who wins depends on who votes. If the people who voted in 2016 vote, Trump wins. If it's the people in 2022, Harris wins. If it's the people from 2020, toss up.
