doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com gun vs. bear

With a bear market and the economy tetering on a prescipice tonight, guns seem to slip back a notch in their overall importance and questions of both personal and national financial wellbeing seem suddenly more important. The last time we had "an adjustment" of this magnitude, 'collectables', including guns fell pretty hard and were moving slowly, at least in the dollar range I move in.

I, for one, see some "adjustment" of some of the rediculous prices put on some really poor condition vintage guns as a good thing. Every Tom, Dick and Harry with a rusty Parker thinks it's worth thousands even if the stock is cracked and the barrels have been chopped off. These guys need a touch of reality, IMO. Unfortunately, this is due to a hardship on our country and many working class people.

Chuck,

I have liquidated two marginal firearms in the past week with the express purpose of transfering my investment dollars into the equity maket.
In both cases I received significantly above my idea of "fair value" for these guns.
So it appears that that there is still a great opportunity to unload some speculative guns before the average buyer feels the pinch...


JRH

Chuck, What did I miss? You say "on the precipice tonight." I agree that our economy is in serious trouble. And, it is always interesting in down times to see what collectibles do. Often, if one is able, it is an opportunity to buy. As well, the real estate market has been in a down turn. But as you and I well know here in So. Cal., the prices in many markets had reached ridiculous levels and some "adjustment" was long overdue. But why the "tonight?" Best, Jake

Doubles are below market now in my region because no one wants them when you can buy a new clickety-clack for $400. There's a different gunner in the field.

Hey Chas: One might speculate that with $5/gal avgas airplanes might become reasonably priced also... I have not observed that.

Craig,
I suppose the "...tonight..." is just my personal perspective that the economy has slipped off the edge and lighted on a precarious landing just below the peak and is positioned to make another move ... up, down, or sideways.

There has been a much needed adjustment to the Parker market, perhaps the day of the 8k Vh is over 'n done - no matter how pristine.
But!
Do keep something rusty behind the kitchen door, there will be hungry Americans and those new arrivals from south of the border and they might just want what you have cooking on the stove.
Investment grade guns are still in play, but the graded shooters are worth less now and I don't see a silver lining.

Chuck,

We are in for a brief period of stability...this is due to the fact the SnP has entered the .382 Fibonacci retracement zone on the SnP. (1268).... This is the retrace of the entire last bull market leg...In other words, anyone worth their salt...even if they are die hard bears, knows that this is not a price zone that will be violated on the first attempt....and certainly not when we are already trading below the -3 standard deviation channel on the yearly (time) frame...

Given the elevated level of the VIX the trade DuJour will continue to be adding index proxies into dips, and selling calls, (shorting premium), against those positions until the premium no longer awardes the trade...

JC

Wow, Perils of Pauline. You can believe anything you read in the NYTimes, at least for a day or two. Don't nobody jump just yet, OK?

jack

Jonesy,
Sorry for your recent loss. I was reminded of how much I enjoy the company of my young dog when I read your experience.

Nah, Avgas didn't swing airplane values, but this bear will if not wrestled to the ground. My recollection is that in past economic downturns, the local GA airports traffic went way down, and many airplanes went unmaintained and unflown.