It seems like 4-5 yrs ago, I first heard the theory that collectable double guns values would fall when the old guard passed on.

I'm not a collector so I don't move in those circles and probably don't see many of these guns.

Some big collectors have passed on in the years that have passed since I first heard this theory.

What do you think? Is there a discernible drop of values?

I'm 37, and I just bought my first classic American double in October. If I had more money, I'd have another 20-30.

To my eyes:

Small bore graded Foxes are substantially up.

Small bore high grade Parkers are flat.

The last James Julia auction contradicts my last statement. I was astounded at the high (my opinion) prices all the Parkers went for.

Who knows? Everything these days changes on a dime. I'm a hunter, wouldn't think of myself as collector; that is, "into" collectibles. Yet I've got a dozen good guns, mostly classics, and in terms of increasing values or as investments, I think not. Gaspipes trump sentiment and aesthetics. Doubles are oddities hereabouts, uncommon on store gun racks, and our shared economies will not remain as robust as they were. They're in decline now.

I think it's eventually inevitable in the broad market for good double guns, maybe not so much for high-end collectibles. Supply will increase as demand/market size simultaneously shrinks. But I don't think the change will be plain to see for another 10 years or more -- when today's middle-aged gun guys with money to spend have filled their safes with great value buys of the guns they like. When those safes start emptying out, there won't be enough fans of those guns around to keep prices from falling.

Jay

I don't think there's a decline. Julia liquidated 4 or 5 very substantial collections last week. Prices were robust. People whine that there were no bargains.

The Class 3 crowd wrings their hand wondering the same. They have politics to worry them also. Julia auctioned a Colt 1921/28 overstamp last week for over $60k. It had some nice accessories, but that still is out of sight.

So don't be pessimistic. Buy today. It will cost more tomorrow.

Curl

I have several stocks that are up 400% plus over the last five years. One stock is up 300% in little over a year. More blind luck than brilliant investment strategy. None of my guns are up anywhere near that amount, or perhaps at all, in the real world.

The "recovery" is very spotty and tends to be localized in many areas, if it has happened at all. If it has hit where you are God bless you and if not hang in there. We get older every year and the need to sell our estates will wait for no man. As investments guns are a dog in most cases, as things to enjoy and pass on to others when done with them they are good as ever.

Small bore doubles are getting very pricey. Have you seen what a 16 or 20 AE Fox or a .410 Smith go for? And do not even think about a 28 anything in a classic American double. High grades when the sell go for respectable dollars but they do seem to linger on the net for a long time.

Enron stock hasn't recovered yet. And still waiting on Lehman Brothers.

There seem to be plenty of model 21s in 12 gauge, with 30" barrels and a pistol grip, that people think are worth in excess of 5 large.
The market doesn't seem to agree, however.
The reason for an auction is not to create bargains. It is to maximize the ratio of buyers to sellers, and create higher prices. That record high price you see for something sold at an auction should be taken with a grain of salt.
The really little guns, in really little gauge, are a market all by itself, with no basis in reality.

Best,
Ted

I collect English blackpowder double rifles and in the late 60's and 70's there were plenty available coming in from India. I was young at the time and could only afford one cheap double at the time. I remember seeing a table at the Ohio Gun Collectors show in the early 70's that had at least 10 blackpowder double rifles on the table that were $500.00 EACH. A gunsmith from England had brought them over after going over each one. They have been a good investment for me over the years, but I do wonder when the well off guys who bought the high class stuff start liquidating their collections, who will be there to buy? Not very many young people have any interest with collecting anything! I still think there will be a climbing market for the high dollar double rifles, as they have world wide appeal. I hope I am right as I am betting on that instead of the stock market!

Ted,
Just curious about your comment on the really little gauges having no basis in reality. I'm not hacking on you, truly. I just don't see any difference in motivation of a buyer spending, say $5k for a 80 yr old 12ga sxs of note and $5k for a little gauge of similar vintage. We all know a Mossberg pump will do the same job. So it's not about utility.

My take is that it's all because the next guy is willing to pay more than $4k. I think collectables are all about perceived value and perception becomes reality when acted on.

I would say an auction, or any part of it, is reality and very real it is.

Auctions, coupled with, and in conjunction with the internet, have had a profound affect on raising the prices of many goods, fine guns included. The reasons are obvious and include the emergence of vast new markets that did not exist just a few years ago. Outside of the very common item, or gun, prices will continue to rise, more so on the very rare and unique item or gun. What any one of us thinks the price should be, doesn't really matter. The MARKET is what matters.

Chuck I agree in general but numbers help a seller in the smaller gauges. If they made five to ten million 12 gauge doubles they made half a million combined small gauges so a built in rare factor makes them all slightly more desirable. Why else would you see Crescent .410 in beater shape going for a grand? Even in pristine shape that is a lot for a Crescent .410.

Looking at Gunbroker you have to think the market is soft for most doubles. Small bores do sell in number that seem equal to 12's which should suggest a higher interest in small bores. even the dead 16's sell well if a decent make of gun. And everyone knows that they do not even make shells for them anymore.

The 300% plus one year stock increase is a special case. I knew the CEO who ran the medical equipment start-up company. He ran it for seven years. Smart guy but not the right leader for that company. He got fired, stock was 5.90 a share. New leadership has turned the company around and the stock is just over $20.00 a share. After Dan left I bought more shares and held them until last week. Just like with guns you never make any real money until you sell them and pay your taxes in the case of stocks.

I love old doubles. I believe that the mid and especially the high end of the market will hold value into the future. As noted in the previous posting rarity in small bore market. I believe the field grade market will not except for small bores.

I believe a parallel market can be seen in the vintage car market. Model A’s and Model T’s used to sell at a higher price than they do now as the crowd that loved them is much diminished. They are still good cars, but the demand is simply down.

Markets are driven by the realities of supply and demand, though not necessarily reason.

I think Jon pointed this out as well as I could have, except that, in reality, a 12 is likely far more practical for far more pursuits than a .410, but, using your own example, two 80 year old guns of the same make, the .410 will likely bring a lot more money than the 12, all else being equal.

28 or 20 gauge, too.

Best,
Ted

One reason smallbores bring more, either Brit or American classic: comparative rarity. Example: About 28,000 graded Fox 12's; something like 7700 graded 20's and 16's combined.

Quote:
"I have several stocks that are up 400% plus over the last five years. One stock is up 300% in little over a year. More blind luck than brilliant investment strategy. None of my guns are up anywhere near that amount, or perhaps at all, in the real world"

This isn't surprising to me when you consider the market is manipulated. However; A 400% increase now could turn into a 400% decrease next month next year or whenever the manipulators decide to take the market South. If I was a stock market "investor" I should have been smart enough to buy either Ruger or Smith & Wesson stock back when the current occupant of the White House moved in.
I've never in my life bought a firearm as an investment. They've been purchased either to use or because I enjoy having them in my personal collection. Having said that; I frankly don't ever remember the prices of good older firearms going down significantly. Are some of the firearms I own worth more then I paid for them ? Yes but how much of it has been due to inflation?
I was told the other day that $100 will now buy what $7 would back in the 1950's.
Using an old tired but still true statement - We are just caretakers of these items anyway.
Enjoy what you have while you're here and can do so and let your heirs worry about what they are worth.
Jim

Buy what you like, if it goes up in value while you own it that's a bonus.

I just sold a Parker and Lefever on the same live internet auction that I purchased them about three years ago. The Parker almost doubled in value while the Lefever went up a few dollars. These were not high end guns. I don't see a drop in prices despite the economy of the last five or six years.

I agree with halifax when he says:

"I would say an auction, or any part of it, is reality and very real it is."

My opinion is that there are anomalies and trends in the vintage gun market, such as increased interest in small bores during a time period (32" barrels are another current trend). A few people are good at identifying these trends as they develop, and capitalizing on them over the short term. Unfortunately, there are very few established investment markets with a lower historical return than firearms. Generally, a longterm hold on a firearm is not going to perform as a very sound financial investment. Buying a gun "right" 3 years ago and finding a handsome return today is NOT indicative of the overall vintage gun market. It just means you bought a couple of guns right several years ago and then found the right buyer looking at the right time.

The S&p 500 was up 30% last year, and 13.4% in 2012. Nasdaq was up 38% in 2013 after a 16% gain in 2012. Your guns would need to double every 3 years to keep up with that pace.

The price of quality hasn't dropped, but I'm not sure you would say the rest of the vintage market (which is the vast majority) is experiencing any growth. A decrease in vintage guns is unusual because most people will just hold on them before selling at a loss, especially the 'shooters' that weren't very expensive in the first place.

Money is made on guns when one buys them, not when one sells them, regardless of trends. One must control the emotions in order to be successful at this. It's a way of life, refusing to pay market prices, waiting and looking for buys that are way under market. When it is possible to do so, the results can be gratifying. But ........... as the apostle Paul said, "For I do not understand my own actions. For I do not do what I want, but I do the very thing I hate".


SRH

Who says the Gospels don't speak to the modern age? Good one Stan.

I think that the price variations in double guns are more minor, and subject to the general feelings about the economy. At least this is how it appears to me, from going to gun shows and auctions.

I think military firearm prices are more subject to generational changes. It seems to me that the WW2 firearms have dropped significantly (M1, M1 carbine, etc.) as now the preference has shifted to the more modern AR types. Those have gone up significantly, although Second Amendment issues probably play a part as well.

Individual double gun collectors are victims of emotion. Dealers in double guns benefit from the emotions of the individual collector. Emotions are much more pronounced when high end double guns are involved. I don't think the market in high end guns is going to collapse any time soon, as long as emotion is involved.

Quote:
"I think military firearm prices are more subject to generational changes. It seems to me that the WW2 firearms have dropped significantly (M1, M1 carbine, etc.) as now the preference has shifted to the more modern AR types. Those have gone up significantly, although Second Amendment issues probably play a part as well.
"
Kindly inform me where I can buy M1 carbines, Colt 45 autos, Lugers, K98 Mausers etc. for prices significantly less then they were a year ago or 10 years ago for that matter?

I collect military firearms on a regular basis and the prices I see for these are way up over what they were a few years ago.

As one example:
Nice MI carbines were in the $500 to $600 range around 5 years ago. The prices have since doubled and I see no end in sight.
Keep in mind that the current "administration" blocked the importation of several hundred thousand of these by the DCM that are just sitting in warehouses in S. Korea and I expect this has had some influence on pricing.
I see no lack of interest in acquiring these by the younger generation at least in my area.
Jim

I decided to add what I believe is another germane point here:

From what I have seen and what I personally know; most people don't have the financial resources to do any serious collecting in the firearms arena until they reach middle age. I keep hearing over and over that you don't see many young buyers at gun shows and I believe this is correct for financial reasons. However; there are lots of young people attending the shows I frequent and I'm convinced they'll eventually become buyer/collectors. I buy every inexpensive 22 rifle I come across and re-sell these inexpensively at gun shows so parents can get their children interested and involved in the shooting sports at a reasonable price.
Without further government oppression I am convinced our hobby is safe and sound well into the future.

Perhaps we need to look at who and why people collect things and how it pertains to doubles as a group. Modern guns are more efficient at killing game so collectors are going away from efficient. For example a 3 1/2" auto loader can kill three birds in a short time frame. Synthetic composite stocks, camo finish, massive payload, interchangeable choke tubes for perfect pattern choice to game, light gathering sights all are more efficient at their task. Doubles are quaint as my mother use to call them, quaint.

I think we collect as a way to relive a time period in the past. Model T prices are down because the number of people who grew up riding in them, as a small boy, are down as well. They are in their 80's and 90's if still alive, so most of them do not even drive much if any anymore. The market is down because the number of buyer is dying out and the connection as well.

WWII stuff, for all but the best stuff, is about to hit the same problem but in 20-30 years. WWII servicemen are all in their 80's and are interested in getting rid of stuff not buying. The next generation is picking up the slack for now but they are in their 50's and 60's so their buying period is coming to an end.

Most people collect stuff from their youth or perhaps from their parents youth. Not much interest in going much further back in time except in some major event time frame. Civil war stuff will always have a following but not so much with WWI. WWII but not Korea or even to a large extent Vietnam.

High grade stuff will always have a market but I see the market for low end stuff being soft in the future. That is why I have real estate and stocks instead of guns as in investment. And even then I buy only what I understand not what the talking heads are talking up. The Best stock tip I ever got was that almost every stock tip you ever get will be wrong. People will talk up what they are dumping to keep the price up not because they are giving you free tips to get rich.

My father used to tell me, "never invest in anything that eats or needs repairing."

M1 Garands and M1 Carbines have gone through the roof as the price of .223 and .308 ammo has both dwindled and skyrocketed in price. Same with the price of AK47's and AK74's, and for the same reasons.