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Chuck H Offline OP
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Ted,
Just curious about your comment on the really little gauges having no basis in reality. I'm not hacking on you, truly. I just don't see any difference in motivation of a buyer spending, say $5k for a 80 yr old 12ga sxs of note and $5k for a little gauge of similar vintage. We all know a Mossberg pump will do the same job. So it's not about utility.

My take is that it's all because the next guy is willing to pay more than $4k. I think collectables are all about perceived value and perception becomes reality when acted on.

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I would say an auction, or any part of it, is reality and very real it is.

Auctions, coupled with, and in conjunction with the internet, have had a profound affect on raising the prices of many goods, fine guns included. The reasons are obvious and include the emergence of vast new markets that did not exist just a few years ago. Outside of the very common item, or gun, prices will continue to rise, more so on the very rare and unique item or gun. What any one of us thinks the price should be, doesn't really matter. The MARKET is what matters.

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Chuck I agree in general but numbers help a seller in the smaller gauges. If they made five to ten million 12 gauge doubles they made half a million combined small gauges so a built in rare factor makes them all slightly more desirable. Why else would you see Crescent .410 in beater shape going for a grand? Even in pristine shape that is a lot for a Crescent .410.

Looking at Gunbroker you have to think the market is soft for most doubles. Small bores do sell in number that seem equal to 12's which should suggest a higher interest in small bores. even the dead 16's sell well if a decent make of gun. And everyone knows that they do not even make shells for them anymore.

The 300% plus one year stock increase is a special case. I knew the CEO who ran the medical equipment start-up company. He ran it for seven years. Smart guy but not the right leader for that company. He got fired, stock was 5.90 a share. New leadership has turned the company around and the stock is just over $20.00 a share. After Dan left I bought more shares and held them until last week. Just like with guns you never make any real money until you sell them and pay your taxes in the case of stocks.

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I love old doubles. I believe that the mid and especially the high end of the market will hold value into the future. As noted in the previous posting rarity in small bore market. I believe the field grade market will not except for small bores.

I believe a parallel market can be seen in the vintage car market. Model A’s and Model T’s used to sell at a higher price than they do now as the crowd that loved them is much diminished. They are still good cars, but the demand is simply down.

Markets are driven by the realities of supply and demand, though not necessarily reason.


Michael Dittamo
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Originally Posted By: Chuck H
Ted,
Just curious about your comment on the really little gauges having no basis in reality. I'm not hacking on you, truly. I just don't see any difference in motivation of a buyer spending, say $5k for a 80 yr old 12ga sxs of note and $5k for a little gauge of similar vintage. We all know a Mossberg pump will do the same job. So it's not about utility.

My take is that it's all because the next guy is willing to pay more than $4k. I think collectables are all about perceived value and perception becomes reality when acted on.


I think Jon pointed this out as well as I could have, except that, in reality, a 12 is likely far more practical for far more pursuits than a .410, but, using your own example, two 80 year old guns of the same make, the .410 will likely bring a lot more money than the 12, all else being equal.

28 or 20 gauge, too.

Best,
Ted

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One reason smallbores bring more, either Brit or American classic: comparative rarity. Example: About 28,000 graded Fox 12's; something like 7700 graded 20's and 16's combined.

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Quote:
"I have several stocks that are up 400% plus over the last five years. One stock is up 300% in little over a year. More blind luck than brilliant investment strategy. None of my guns are up anywhere near that amount, or perhaps at all, in the real world"

This isn't surprising to me when you consider the market is manipulated. However; A 400% increase now could turn into a 400% decrease next month next year or whenever the manipulators decide to take the market South. If I was a stock market "investor" I should have been smart enough to buy either Ruger or Smith & Wesson stock back when the current occupant of the White House moved in.
I've never in my life bought a firearm as an investment. They've been purchased either to use or because I enjoy having them in my personal collection. Having said that; I frankly don't ever remember the prices of good older firearms going down significantly. Are some of the firearms I own worth more then I paid for them ? Yes but how much of it has been due to inflation?
I was told the other day that $100 will now buy what $7 would back in the 1950's.
Using an old tired but still true statement - We are just caretakers of these items anyway.
Enjoy what you have while you're here and can do so and let your heirs worry about what they are worth. grin
Jim


The 2nd Amendment IS an unalienable right.
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Buy what you like, if it goes up in value while you own it that's a bonus.

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I just sold a Parker and Lefever on the same live internet auction that I purchased them about three years ago. The Parker almost doubled in value while the Lefever went up a few dollars. These were not high end guns. I don't see a drop in prices despite the economy of the last five or six years.

I agree with halifax when he says:

"I would say an auction, or any part of it, is reality and very real it is."


So many guns, so little time!
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My opinion is that there are anomalies and trends in the vintage gun market, such as increased interest in small bores during a time period (32" barrels are another current trend). A few people are good at identifying these trends as they develop, and capitalizing on them over the short term. Unfortunately, there are very few established investment markets with a lower historical return than firearms. Generally, a longterm hold on a firearm is not going to perform as a very sound financial investment. Buying a gun "right" 3 years ago and finding a handsome return today is NOT indicative of the overall vintage gun market. It just means you bought a couple of guns right several years ago and then found the right buyer looking at the right time.

The S&p 500 was up 30% last year, and 13.4% in 2012. Nasdaq was up 38% in 2013 after a 16% gain in 2012. Your guns would need to double every 3 years to keep up with that pace.

The price of quality hasn't dropped, but I'm not sure you would say the rest of the vintage market (which is the vast majority) is experiencing any growth. A decrease in vintage guns is unusual because most people will just hold on them before selling at a loss, especially the 'shooters' that weren't very expensive in the first place.

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