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Forums10
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Mar 29th, 2024
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97 |
the doublegun investment market is in flux...fortunately, the rate of change is slow enough that classic risk vs return ratio probability analysis techniques can be employed to create scenarios for return on investment models...
anybody wish to start it off?
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4 |
I have overspent on some double guns, and gotten good deals on others, and I won't sell any of them for less than what I paid (my wife would if I kicked the bucket). I get to hunt with them, which is why I bought them in the first place, which makes them all a lot of fun to own. Being in my early 50s, I probably have to wait another ten to fifteen years to see where my double gun investments are. And by then, my son will have quietly assumed ownership of all but a couple that I keep close at hand at all times. So now that I think about it, I may never get to figure out if my double rifle purchases made or lost money...
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97 |
then this thread is not for you...enjoy your collection...
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4 |
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,748 Likes: 743
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,748 Likes: 743 |
I never bought a gun with the idea I could make money on it, Ed. I bought McDonalds stock when it was about $80 a share. That was an investment Ed. Investments are mostly different than guns.
I have a few guns that will sell for more than I paid for them. But, that is nothing more than a happy accident, and if Im not around to supervise the dispersal, that notion could go straight to hell also. The happy accident is also subject to change if the next generation decides hunting and the shooting sports are pass.
Model that, ed.
Best,
Ted
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Joined: May 2007
Posts: 602
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 602 |
Investments make money only two ways: they earn an income; and/or they are sold for more (accounting for inflation etc) than they were bought.
Guns, ordinarily, can't earn an income. That leaves capital growth. Sure, some have made good money buying cheaply and selling later at a profit, but what dividends did they forego by having their money tied up in guns? How much was eaten by insurance, storage, security, maintenance etc?
The only way I see guns being a worthwhile investment is to find sleepers and valuables that the vendors don't realise are valuable and buy them for a bargain. But that's arbitrage. It doesn't often happen, and the time and learning and legwork that goes into making those moments happen has a cost all of its own.
For those reasons, it's my opinion that investing in guns is a mug's game.
My guns are not bought with a view to what they'll be worth down the track. They're bought because I enjoy and appreciate them.
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 15,456 Likes: 86
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 15,456 Likes: 86 |
Ed I've never saw a gun you had listed that could be called an investment except on your end.
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4
Sidelock
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Sidelock
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 325 Likes: 4 |
Investments make money only two ways: they earn an income; and/or they are sold for more (accounting for inflation etc) than they were bought.
Guns, ordinarily, can't earn an income. That leaves capital growth. Sure, some have made good money buying cheaply and selling later at a profit, but what dividends did they forego by having their money tied up in guns? How much was eaten by insurance, storage, security, maintenance etc?
The only way I see guns being a worthwhile investment is to find sleepers and valuables that the vendors don't realise are valuable and buy them for a bargain. But that's arbitrage. It doesn't often happen, and the time and learning and legwork that goes into making those moments happen has a cost all of its own.
For those reasons, it's my opinion that investing in guns is a mug's game.
My guns are not bought with a view to what they'll be worth down the track. They're bought because I enjoy and appreciate them. That
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FOAC Life
PA Federation of Sportsmen's Clubs Life
PA Trappers Association Life
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97 |
looking for model data input...a clue:
what rumsfeld said:
- we know what we know...
- we know what we don't know...
- we don't know what we don't know...
you come up with the data scenarios...
i will create the models and run them through simulating algorithms to produce the charts necessary for linear risk/benefit analysis...
Last edited by ed good; 11/05/18 01:36 AM.
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97
Sidelock
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OP
Sidelock
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 97 |
jOe: every gun can be an investment or not...if they are investments, then the trick is knowin when to hold erm and when to fold erm...and when to cash out...and move to a different game...
Last edited by ed good; 11/05/18 01:47 AM.
keep it simple and keep it safe...
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