They loose at poker because they are bad at math. 2% chance any card in the deck is he one you need. If you only have a single card that will give you the winning hand you are betting a long shot. I had a fellow who told me looking for just one card like that was a 50:50 bet. He figured it was yes or no but truth is that it is yes, no,no,no......no. And he wondered by he arely won on such 50:50 odds.

As to bidding early I agree it is a mistake. Draws too much interest.